Philadelphia, PA (Betting Express) - Four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has won almost every important race in his illustrious career -- except the Kentucky Derby. The future Hall-of-Famer is hoping 2010 will be his year, especially since his stable has five of the top 20 contenders.
One of those is the 5-2 morning line favorite in Saturday's Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
Rule faces a field of 10 in the Grade 1 race, his first start since taking the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month. The son of Roman Ruler easily disposed of five rivals that day, including Schoolyard Dreams, who recently finished second by a nose to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher's colt prevailed gate to wire that day winning by three lengths stopping the clock in 1:44 seconds for the 1 1/16-mile race.
Still, he's not a sure thing in the Florida Derby for two reasons.
First, it's likely jockey John Velazquez will try to ration his speed in order to prepare him for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby grind six weeks later. It's not often a horse wires the field on the first Saturday in May so Rule might not be on the lead this Saturday.
Second, it's still not a given he'll be able to handle nine furlongs. Remember, Velazquez was able to slow the pace of the Sam F. Davis to a crawl going the first half in 47 3/5 seconds. He most certainly will not be allowed to lope along at that tempo on what will be a rock hard Gulfstream Park surface so that extra sixteenth of a mile could be his undoing.
Can he win the Florida Derby? Of course! Is it the proper bet at low odds? Probably not!
OTHER HORSES TO WATCH
Rule's main challenger is Radiohead. After finishing seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the chestnut colt came out running in his 2010 debut defeating a solid allowance field by 3 1/4-lengths at one mile over the Gulfstream Park surface on February 27.
Sitting second behind the previously-undefeated General Maximus for most of the race, he put that one away with ease through the stretch running a 23 4/5- second final quarter. It was his first ever start on true dirt and he handled it with ease.
Sired by Johannesburg, whose son Scat Daddy won the 2007 Florida Derby, Radiohead will have no problems getting the 1 1/8-mile distance even though this will be his first two-turn race outside of California. Nevertheless, he drew post 11 (the far outside) and will most likely have a wide trip for much of the race.
A pair of other February 27 Gulfstream Park winners will also try to run their winning streak to two as Miner's Reserve and Game On Dude move up from maiden victories to this Grade 1 stakes event. They were very impressive that day but the jump up in class will be their demise.
The most intriguing colt in the race is Barbaro's full-brother, Lentenor. Trained by Michael Matz, Lentenor has just one win in four starts, three of which came on the turf. This will be his first ever start on conventional dirt after a third-place finish on Polytrack at Keeneland last October.
Lentenor has the speed to either race on the lead or track Rule from second so if he handles the dirt as well as his famous brother, he could find very well find himself in the winner's circle.
Three colts from the Fountain of Youth - Pleasant Prince, Ice Box and Pulsion - return in the Florida Derby and of the three, the one to keep an eye on is Ice Box.
His fifth-place finish (beaten 12 lengths) appears dreadful on the surface but he broke very slowly from the gate and rushed up with a quick 47 1/5 middle half-mile. It's almost an impossible task to close from way back around two turns at Gulfstream Park so with a better break on Saturday he could easily improve into an in-the-money finish.
In addition, it looks as if trainer Nick Zito wants a little more speed from the son of Pulpit after a 47 1/5-second, four furlong bullet workout at Palm Meadows on March 13.
Selections: 1) Ice Box; 2) Rule; 3) Radiohead.
WHAT TO PLAY THE REST OF THE DAY
Besides the Florida Derby, Saturday's Gulfstream Park card boasts four other stakes races, including a great matchup between Hallelujah and Christine Daae, two of the top three-year-old fillies in the country in the Bonnie Miss Stakes.
Race eight spotlights the U.S. debut of the number one filly in South America. The Venezuelan-bred Bambera, winner of 16 of 18 lifetime starts, battles Unrivaled Belle in the Grade 3 Rampart Stakes.
Kiss the Kid tries to duplicate his win in the Appleton Stakes after taking this race last year, while the Swale is D'Funnybone's race to lose at odds-on. One longshot to keep on eye in the Swale is the John Sadler-trained Privilaged, a half-brother to the 2009 Sunland Derby winner Kelly Leak.
However, if your goal is to win the most money on Florida Derby day, it's best to stick with the lesser races on the card, namely the even-numbered ones.
Race two is an allowance event for three-year-old colts going one mile on the turf. The favorite will be Saint Eliguis, who ran a close third to Doubles Partner and Lentenor at 1 1/8-miles on the grass last month.
The play here is Manhattan Fox, racing for the first time since October after facing Group 1 horses in Great Britain. Trainer Christophe Clement wins at a 25% clip with horses coming to America for the first time so bet Manhattan Fox to win, and on top (and underneath) Saint Eliguis in exactas.
Race four marks the return of Fine Flyer, who I gave out earlier this month. Unfortunately, he failed to get out of the gate with the other horses that day, running fifth at 20-1. Bet him to win and in an exacta box with Stimulus Plan and Alma d'Oro.
Race six is a one-mile optional claiming allowance event for fillies and mares on the turf and the choice here is the eight, Pull Dancer. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is winning one-fourth of all races when he brings a horse back off a layoff between two and six months.
Pull Dancer hasn't raced since October 12 but just missed that day by a neck in the Pebbles Stakes at Belmont Park. There looks to be sufficient speed to run with the favorite, Romacca, so take a shot with the daughter of Pulpit in race six.
Race 12, the final event on the card, is also a turf race at one mile, but this time it's for maiden three-year-old and up colts and geldings.
Trend ships down to Gulfstream Park from Woodbine where he ran fifth in his two lifetime starts.
His career didn't get off to a bright start after breaking in air at the start. Still, he rallied from 10th place to lose by only three lengths on the turf, and trainer Mark Frostad brings him back to the grass after four solid workouts over the Palm Meadows turf course. He also adds blinkers for the first time so if you can get double-digit odds he's worth a few dollars.
Finally, Trappe Shot, a horse to watch from earlier in the year, makes his third career start on Sunday at Gulfstream Park in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race. The son of Tapit will be a short-priced favorite but keep him in mind when he stretches out against stronger competition.
MEDAGLIA d'AMOUR - FUTURE STAKES-WINNING FILLY
The Santa Anita crowd witnessed a star in the making last Sunday as Medaglia d'Amour remained undefeated on grass, winning a one-mile allowance event by a full length in 1:33 4/5. She's now picked up two straight victories on the turf in 2010.
Breaking from post 11, Medaglia d'Amour settled into third place down the backstretch, less than two lengths off the lead after a half run in 45 4/5 seconds. Jockey Joel Rosario hustled her to the top spot coming into the stretch and she held off the field while running her final quarter-mile in a brisk 23 3/5 seconds. The sky is the limit for the daughter of Medgalia d'Oro.
