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MLB: Uncovering the Underdogs


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Philadelphia, PA (Betting Express) - Sometimes it's extremely easy to fatten your wallet when wagering on the favorite in a baseball game. The home team is usually the choice, and in a year when those clubs are winning 57% of the time, it's hard to go against them.

There has been a lot of talk lately concerning how well teams are playing at home this year, and the records do back it up. There are only two clubs in each league below the .500 mark in their own ballparks and three of the four (Kansas City, Seattle and Washington) hold down last place in their respective division. San Francisco is the fourth, and the Giants are just a half-game out of the cellar in the NL West.

The bulk of the dominating home play has come from the East and Central. Those 21 teams are a combined 472-317 this season for a 60% winning percentage. Last season, those very same clubs ended up 898-802 for a winning percentage of just 53%.

Since it's been a much harder chore for the road teams in 2008, how can a bettor build up his bankroll on a consistent basis by not succumbing to the temptation of always backing the home team, especially as the chalk?

The best way to tackle this problem is to keep a keen eye on when those East and Central clubs are home underdogs. This scenario takes place more than one would imagine. In fact, during a 13-day span ranging from late May to early June, there were at least five such occasions, with the most notable game coming on May 21st when Brandon Webb lost his first contest of the year to Florida.

Webb had won his first nine decisions, but only one came on the road against a team from the East or Central, and Arizona was a heavy road favorite vs. Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins. After finishing April with an ERA below 2.00, Webb was showing signs of faltering as his earned run average in his next three starts was 3.63, and all three games were played at home.

Florida was a first-place team on May 21 and the D-Backs were the prohibitive road favorite at -163. Nolasco shut them down allowing just one run on three hits through seven innings and the Marlins won, 3-1.

On June 2, another heavy road favorite fell by the wayside when the Yankees and Andy Pettitte were -151 in Minnesota. At that time, the Twins had a better record than New York and they had already won five of the six home starts pitched by Livan Hernandez. Still, the Yankees were the gamblers' choice and ended up falling to the Twins, 6-5.

THE ASTROS BARK IT UP

The next-to-last week in May saw a few more home dogs howl to victory with the first two coming from Houston. The Astros were facing the Cubs and Ryan Dempster in the second game of a three-game series on May 20 and the former closer had yet to win a road game. (In fact, he still hasn't, and the season's almost halfway through.) In addition, Dempster was coming off back-to-back 100-pitch performances and facing a team that had won eight of its last 10 at home.

Hunter Pence connected on a grand slam in the sixth inning and that was all Chris Sampson needed as Houston had won the fourth consecutive game he had started. The Cubs were the -124 favorites, not a huge price, but significant nonetheless as the home team came through once again.

Four days later, the Astros had won for the fifth time in their previous six games as a home dog. This time Philadelphia's Brett Myers was the -129 favorite. A strange number indeed, considering he was 0-4 on the road with 44 hits allowed in 28 innings and an ERA of 7.39 at the time.

Houston was winning at a 64% clip at home prior to that game and walked off with another victory, tagging the loss on Myers, who gave up four runs in six innings.

The final example comes from another team in the Central, this time an American League club. Prior to his June meltdown, Jose Contreras was lights- out whenever he took the mound, and the May 25 Sunday night battle with John Lackey and the Angels was another extraordinary performance. He struck out 10 that evening, but left after eight with the score tied at two.

Lackey was brilliant as well allowing just two runs through eight innings, but Carlos Quentin took matters into his own hands with a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth to give the Sox the 3-2 win. The Angels had won the first two games of that series, but the third matchup was the only contest in which they were favored. The home underdog had struck again.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

From May 19 to June 22, my MLB record was an astounding 18-4 with a profit margin of plus $1,738 for every $100 wagered. The above five games were examples of home underdogs selected over the past month or so. Not all the 18 winners were home dogs, but a large proportion of the plays were against the favorite. In fact, 13 of the 22 choices (60%) were the underdogs, which produced an 11-2 record.

The headline of this column is "Uncovering the Underdogs" and that's exactly what the betting public should do. It's easy to come up with the Cubs over the White Sox, especially in the series finale this past Sunday when Ryan Dempster was only -126 at Wrigley Field, but there's no better feeling than defeating Brandon Webb as a heavy favorite or taking down the Yankees when they are high-priced choices.

For daily selections, go to the "Inside the Numbers" page at www.sportsnetwork.com.

June 24, 2008, at 01:35 PM ET
<-- Indians sign Graffanino, Rincon to minor league deals
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